tisdag 24 september 2013

The Funeral of IPCC: Too Strong Response to Greenhouse-Gas Forcing

The leaked IPCC AR5 Summary for Policymakers tells the world and its leaders that climate models tuned to the observed warming 1970 - 1998, do not fit with the observed lack of warming 1998 - 2013
  • There is very high confidence that models reproduce the more rapid warming in the second half of the 20th century.
  • Models do not generally reproduce the observed reduction in surface warming trend over the last 10–15 years. 
  • There is medium confidence that this difference between models and observations is to a substantial degree caused by unpredictable climate variability, with possible contributions from inadequacies in the solar, volcanic, and aerosol forcings used by the models and, in some models, from too strong a response to increasing greenhouse-gas forcing
IPCC thus admits that climate models are constructed to have
  • too strong a response to increasing greenhouse-gas forcing,
and are unable to capture
  • unpredictable climate variability. 
This must be the end of IPCC since IPCC was formed on the sole doctrine of strong a response of green-house gas (CO2) forcing in climate model predictions. 

Since IPCC was born in Stockholm from the mind of the Swedish meteorologist Bert Bolin, it is fully logical that the funeral of IPCC now takes place in Stockholm along with the Bert Bolin Center for Climate Research.

PS Concerning climate predictions recall the prediction I made in 2009. 

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