tisdag 17 september 2013

Staggering Consequences of One IPCC Graph

Ross McKitrick comments on the reality facing the 5th Assessment Report of IPCC to be presented September 23 - 26 in Stockholm in IPCC Models Getting Mushy (Financial Post):
  • Everything you need to know about the dilemma the IPCC faces is summed up in one remarkable graph.
  • Models predict one thing and the data show another.
  • There is a high probability we will witness the crackup of one of the most influential scientific paradigms of the 20th century, and the implications for policy and global politics could be staggering.

The above graphic is Figure 1.4 from Chapter 1 of a draft of the Fifth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The initials at the top represent the First Assessment Report (FAR) in 1990, the Second (SAR) in 1995. Shaded banks show range of predictions from each of the four climate models used for all four reports since 1990. That last report, AR4, was issued in 2007. Model runs after 1992 were tuned to track temporary cooling due to the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in The Philippines. The black squares, show with uncertainty bars, measure the observed average surface temperatures over the same interval. The range of model runs is syndicated by the vertical bars. The light grey area above and below is not part of the model prediction range. The final version of the new IPCC report, AR5, will be issued later this month.

The message is the same as that Richard Feynman sent to his physics colleagues:
  • It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong.
Even if the climate theory of IPCC is ugly and IPCC lead authors have limited smartness, if it does not agree with observation, it is wrong. 

The graph shows that IPCC climate theory does not agree with observation. The implications for policy and global politics will be staggering.

PS Roy Spencer draws the same conclusion in Turning Point for IPCC and Humanity:
  • We are now at the point in the age of global warming hysteria where the IPCC global warming theory has crashed into the hard reality of observations. 
  • A few of us are not that surprised, as we always distrusted the level of faith that climate modelers had in their understanding of the causes of climate change.

3 kommentarer:

  1. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2415191/Global-cooling-Arctic-ice-caps-grows-60-global-warming-predictions.html

  2. Correct link :-)


  3. The current figure 1.4 in the public (but not officially released) final draft of AR5 30 September 2013 looks much different from the posted graph. The model runs correlate much better with the observations.