Tyndall and his Greenhouse Effect

Tyndall's experimental setup to demonstrate global warming by CO2.

The three cornerstones of CO2 climate alarmism are Fourier, Tyndall and Arrhenius. In the previous post we inspected Fourier. We now turn to

• Tyndall (1861) On the Absorption and Radiation of Heat by Gases and Vapours, and on the Physical Connexion of Radiation, Absorption, and Conduction.—The Bakerian Lecture.

We read:

• But this aqueous vapour, which exercises such a destructive action on the obscure rays, is comparatively transparent to the rays of light. Hence the differential action, as regards the heat coming from the sun to the earth and that radiated from the earth into space, is vastly augmented by the aqueous vapour of the atmosphere.
• It is exceeedingly probable that the absorptionof the solar rays by the atmosphere, as established by M. Pouillet, is mainly due to the watery vapour contained in the air.
• De Saussure, Fourier, M. Pouillet, and Mr. Hopkins regard this interception of terrestrial rays as exercising the most important influence on climate.
• Now if, as the above experiments indicate, the chief influence be exercised by the aqueous vapour, every variation of this constituent must produce a change of climate.
• Similar remarks would apply to the carbonic acid diffused through the air, while an almost inappreciable admixture of any of the hydrocarbon vapours would produce great effects on the terrestrial rays and produce corresponding changes of climate.
• It is not, therefore, necessary to assume alterations in the density and height of the atmosphere to account for different amounts of heat being preserved to the earth at different times; a slight change in its variable constituents would suffice for this;
• Such changes in fact may have produced all the mutations of climate which the researches of geologists reveal.
• However this may be, the facts above cited remain; they constitute true causes, the extent alone of the operation remaining doubtful.

Tyndall reports on laboratory experiments on absorption, but presents no physical quantitative mathematical theory to support his claim that:

• an almost inappreciable admixture of any of the hydrocarbon vapours would produce great effects... on changes of climate.

Accordingly, Tyndall immediately withdraws the claim by stating:

• ...the extent alone of the operation remaining doubtful.

We find here the root of the contradictory arguments repeated over and over in CO2 climate alarmism: A small cause (change of CO2) can have a substantial effect on global temperature, but the size of the effect remains unknown.

The last repetition of Tyndall's argument appeared in Science on Oct 15: Atmospheric CO2: Principal Control Knob Governing Earth’s Temperature by climate alarmist Gavin A. Schmidt et al.

But to show scientifically that a small cause will have a substantial effect requires a precise model so that the small cause can be distinguished from other small or big causes. In climate science this model is lacking, and therefore Tyndall's conjecture remains to be demonstrated.

Fourier and his Greenhouse Effect

Joseph Fourier (1768-1830 ) in his grave, still very much present in IPCC.

CO2 climate alarmism is based on an atmospheric "greenhouse effect" attributed to the mathematician Joseph Fourier (1768-1830) as described in General Remarks of the Temperature of the Terrestial Globe and the Planetary Spaces from 1824:

• The heat of the earth is derived from three sources:
• The earth is heated by solar rays.
• It partakes of the common temperature of the planetary spaces; being exposed to innumerable stars which surround the solar system.
• The earth preserves in its interior a part of that primitive heat which it had at the time of the first formation of the planets.
• The interposition of the air very modifies the effects of the upon the surface of the globe. The solar rays traversing the atmospheric strata which are condensed by their own weight, heat them very unequally: those which are rarest are likewise coldest because they extinguish and absorb a smaller part of the rays. The heat of the sun coming in in the form of light, possesses the property of penetrating transparent solids or liquids, and loses this property entirely, when by communicating with terrestial bodies, it is turned into heat radiating without light.
• This distinction between luminous and non-luminous heat, explains the elevation of temperature by transparent bodies. The mass of waters which cover a great part of the globe, and the oceans of the polar regions, oppose a less obstacle to the admission of luminous heat, than to the heat without light which returns in a contrary direction to open space.
• The pressure of the atmosphere produces an effect of the same kind: but an effect, which, in the present state of the theory, and from want of observations compared with each other, cannot be exactly defined.
• We see that the surface of the terrestial globe is placed between a solid mass, the central part of which may surpass that of matter heated to whiteness, and an immense girdle, whose temperature is below that requisite for the congelation of mercury.
• It is difficult to know how far the atmosphere influences the mean temperature of the globe, and in this examination we are no longer guided by regular mathematical theory. It is to the celebrated traveller M. de Saussure that we are indebted for capital experiment, which appears to throw light on this question.
• The experiment consists of exposing to the rays of the sun a vessel covered with one or more plates of glass, very transparent and placed with some distance one upon the other. The interior of the vessel is furnished with a thick covering of black cork, proper for receiving and preserving heat. The heated air is contained in all parts both in the interior of the vessel and in between the plates. Thermometers placed in the vessel itself and in the intervals above, mark the degrees of heat in each space. This instrument was placed in the sun about noon and the thermometer in the vessel was seen to rise 70, 80, 100, 110 (Reaumur) and upwards. The thermometers placed in between the glass plates indicated much lower degrees of heat, and the heat decreased form the bottom of the vessel to the highest interval.
• The theory of the instrument is easily understood. It is sufficient to remark, 1st, that the acquired heat is concentrated because it is not dissipated by renewing the air; 2d, that the best of the sun, has properties different from those of heat without light. The rays of that body are transmitted in considerable quantity through the glass plates into all the intervals, even to the bottom of the vessel. They heat the air and the partitions which contain it. Their heat thus communicated ceases to be luminous, and preserves only the properties of non-luminous heat. In this state it cannot pass through the plates covering the vessel.

This is the supposed original scientific basis of IPCC CO2 climate alarmism. We see that

Fourier presents a simplistic theory of a glasshouse with, 1st, blocking of convection and, 2d, radiative heating. Fourier combines this with confused ideas of heating from the interior of the earth and all the stars. No mathematical formulas are presented, only vague ideas in words. The step from Saussure's little experiment to the Earth with atmosphere is immense.

Fourier documents some understanding of blackbody radiation, but altogether he describes a rudimentary and largely incorrect science. Nevertheless, Fourier could have had a leading position in IPCC if he had been present today, since IPCC climate science is built on Fourier's "greenhouse theory", essentially in its original rudimentary confused form presented above.

Compare with Geologist about the missing science of any "greenhouse effect" and the myth of backradiation.

KVA: Vilken Växthuseffekt?

KVAs svarar genom Lennart Bengtsson på mina frågor: 

1. Vad är växthuseffekten och i vilka huvudsakliga vetenskapliga grundarbeten beskrivs och analyseras denna effekt?  
   
2.  Är denna växthuseffekt grunden till den CO2-alarmism som IPCC framför och KVA stödjer?  

Följande svar ges på min fråga 1: 

• (LB) En utmärkt sammanfattning av tidigare arbeten, Fourier(1824), Tyndall(1865), Arrhenius (1896) mm återfinns i boken ”The lagacy of Svante Arrhenius understanding the greenhouse effect” Ed. Rodhe och Charlson, 1998 ISBN 91-7190-0284. Samtliga artiklar i boken rekommenderas för övrigt till läsning liksom de däri refererade artiklarna. En mer detaljerad beskrivning återfinns i Kap 2 i IPCCs vetenskapliga rapport från 2007 och referenserna däri. Fritt nedladdningsbar från IPCCs hemsida.  
• (HD) En god bok å lese er også David Archer, Global warming: Understanding the Forecast, David Archer (Wiley-Blackwell, 2006). Tilknyttet denne boken er det også on-line program som en kan kjøre for å estimere drivhuseffekten av ulike drivhusgasser (se http://geoflop.uchicago.edu/forecast/docs).  
  

och på fråga 2:

• (LB) KVA har sammanfattad sin syn (september 2009) som Academy-statement-on-climate-change.  Jag kan inte anse den alarmistisk på ngt sätt. 
  

Vad kan man säga om detta? LB kommer dragande med gamla arbeten av Fourier, Tyndall och Arrhenius som är matematiskt vetenskapligt simplistiska med triviala modeller för enbart strålning utan hänsyn till konvektion mm, och som inte säger något alls om vilken effekt CO2 kan ha på jordens temp.  Det är ju inte vetenskap, bara gammal skåpmat. 

LB ger två motstridiga meddelanden: 

• Jordens värms upp av människans utsläpp av CO2! Se upp! Farligt! 
  
• Detta är inte alarmistiskt på ngt sätt.

Bravo! Vilket vetenskapligt logiskt matematiskt tänkande! Begrunda LBs presentation:

Huvudtesen är att eftersom vädret är kaotiskt och inte kan förutsägas, så kan klimatet förutsägas som väder-medelvärde: Ju mer oförutsägbart vädret är, desto mer förutsägbart blir klimatet. Ju sämre vädermodellen är, desto bättre blir klimatmodellen. Sen säger LB naturligtvis samtidigt det konträra, nämligen att klimatmodellering är omöjlig, eftersom det 

det hela är kaotiskt...Är detta verkligen det bästa KVA kan prestera?

Men med KVAs  kurragömmalek med indirekta skriftliga svar, kan ju svaranden LB svara precis hur ologiskt och motsägande som helst. I ett direkt möte är detta inte möjligt, men detta tillåter inte KVA. Det var väl inte så Linne och Celsius hade tänkt att Akademin skulle funka...

Jämför med No Consensus Among Climate Scientists After All.

Jämför med Atmospheric CO2: Principal Control Knob Governing Earth'd Temperature av Gavin Schmidt et al:

• The Sun is the source of energy that heats Earth. Besides direct solar heating of the ground, there is also indirect longwave (LW) warming arising from the thermal radiation that is emitted by the ground, then absorbed locally within the atmosphere, from which it is re-emitted in both upward and downward directions, further heating the ground and maintaining the temperature gradient in the atmosphere. This radiative interaction is the greenhouse effect, which was first discovered by Joseph Fourier in 1824, experimentally verified by John Tyndall in 1863, and quantified by Svante Arrhenius in 1896.
  

Vi ser här samma mantra Fourier-Tyndall-Arrhenius som vetenskaplig grund för påstådd växthuseffekt, som LB använder. Vi ser att LB använder samma argument som klimatalarmisten Gavin Schmidt, men LB är naturligtvis inte "alarmistisk på ngt sätt".

Eller vad säger LB?

 

FRS Multiplication Table and CO2

The revised statement by the Royal Society Climate Change Summary of Science is full of scientific misconceptions as noted in the earlier post Royal Society in Free Fall, such as the following presented under the contradictory heading

• Aspects of climate change where there is a wide consensus but continuing debate and discussion
  

namely:

• Once atmospheric CO2 concentrations are increased, carbon cycle models (which simulate the exchange of carbon between the atmosphere, oceans, soils and plants) indicate that it would take a very long time for that increased CO2 to disappear; this is mainly due to well-known chemical reactions in the ocean. Current understanding indicates that even if there was a complete cessation of emissions of CO2 today from human activity, it would take several millennia for CO2 concentrations to return to preindustrial concentrations.
  

In the recent article The Carbon Cycle and Royal Society Math by Dr Klaus Kaiser at CFP, this is shown to lack any mathematical rationale. How can it be that even elementary mathematics is beyond the capacity of FRS?

Maybe history gives the answer: Recall that FRS Samuel Pepys (1633-1703) in his famous diary records his struggle to learn the multiplication table (July 4th 1662):

• Up by five o'clock, and after my journall put in order, to my office about my business, which I am resolved to follow, for every day I see what ground I get by it.
• By and by comes Mr. Cooper, mate of the Royall Charles, of whom I intend to learn mathematiques, and do begin with him to-day, he being a very able man, and no great matter, I suppose, will content him. After an hour's being with him at arithmetique (my first attempt being to learn the multiplication-table).
  

It seems that Royals have limited talent for mathematics, with one exception proving the validity of this observation: King Karl XII of Sweden was interested in mathematics and in particular wanted to replace the base 10 with 64, and to this end during one single night gave new names to all the numbers from 1 to 63. However, maybe because the corresponding multiplication table was too hard to memorize, his reform attempts came to 0.

BodyandSoul Discussion Forum

Parts of a new e-version of the (old) BodyandSoul mathematics education reform program will be tested at KTH in the course DN1240 Numerical Methods, Basic Course II starting Oct 25.

I hereby open this blog post as a Discussion Forum for the students following the course, and also other interested. An introduction is given in BodyandSoul at KTH.

I hope in particular to get feedback on the new e-version BodyandSoul Mathematical Simulation Technology. I am also more than willing to answer all kinds of questions related to the text. There are many open ends in different directions.

Questions and feedback can be entered as Comments below.

Remember that

• No serious question is stupid.
  
• To not ask questions is stupid.

And listen to these non-stupid observations:

• To raise new questions, new possibilities, to regard old problems from a new angle, requires creative imagination and marks real advance in science. (Einstein)
• The only thing more dangerous than ignorance is arrogance. (Einstein)
• The art and science of asking questions is the source of all knowledge. (Thomas Berger)
• In questions of science, the authority of a thousand is not worth the humble reasoning of a single individual. (Galileo Galilei)
• You cannot teach a man anything; you can only help him discover it in himself. (Galileo Galilei)
• A subtle thought that is in error may yet give rise to fruitful inquiry that can establish truths of great value. (Isaac Asimov)
• Questions are never indiscreet, answers sometimes are. (Oscar Wilde)
• Judge a man by his questions rather than his answers. (Voltaire)
• There is frequently more to be learned from the unexpected questions of a child than the discourses of men. (John Locke)
• Ignorant men raise questions that wise men answered a thousand years ago. (Goethe)
• I can't deal with the press; I hate all those Beatles questions. (Paul McCartney)
• ...

The Royals Brooding Difficult Questions

The Scientific Panel of The Royal Academy Seminar on Climate Simulation are still brooding over how to respond to the written questions asked to be posed before the seminar, none of which was answered during the seminar. Meanwhile The Royal Academy gives its own report of the most successful and very well attended seminar under the title Complex Nature Tricks Even the Best Climate Models:

• Global warming is inevitable.
• But how much warmer present climate models cannot tell.
• Professors Lennart Bengtsson and Helge Drange, both experts on different aspects of climate modeling, are sure that the climate is getting warmer, even if the models are deficient.
• The computations are risk analyses and not prognoses, says Bengtsson.
• In Sweden there will be no serious problem, although politicians have wanted it that way. The question is too complex for them, says Bengtsson.

Lennart Bengtsson is clever and main responsible for the statement by the Royal Academy in support of IPCC. Bengtsson says two things:

• It will get warmer, for sure. Funding of IPCC climate alarmism must continue.
• We don't know at all if it will get warmer, because the science is lacking.

But what will be his answers to the questions? The World is waiting...

Swedish Academy of Sciences Violates Principle of Science

The Nobel Prizes in Physics and Chemistry have been awarded since 1901 by The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, according to the terms of the Alfred Nobel will.

The Royal Academy serves as the scientific guarantee of Swedish climate politics as expressed in its statement in support of IPCC.

In both these roles scientific credibility is crucial. How does then the Royal Academy show that it is worthy of Nobel's will and the trust of Swedish government and people?

Yesterday I witnessed how the Royal Academy violated the most basic principle of science: open free discussion. A shocking experience worthy of a 1984 totalitarian state. What was then so shocking? Well, what do you say about this:

The Royal Academy arranged a scientific seminar on Prediction of Future Climate (together with The Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences IVA) with the following flagrant violations of open scientific discussion:

• only IPCC loyal speakers allowed to pump out standard IPCC dogmas
• not a word of criticism of IPPC
• speakers presented only trivialities as if the audience consisted of fools
• only IPCC loyal speakers allowed in "panel discussion"
• no questions from audience allowed during presentations and panel discussion
• questions to the panel invited to be submitted in advance
• none of the invited submitted questions discussed by the panel.

The audience of about 100 scientists was treated like herd of sheep. Nobody in the audience objected to the treatment, although there were many IPCC critics. A sad experience.

How is this possible? Why does the Royal Academy violate the most holy principle of science

of open free discussion? Why does the Royal Academy support a corrupt IPCC? Why does the Royal Academy humiliate Swedish scientists?

The Nobel Peace Prize to Gore and Pachauri was a joke. Why risk to make also the Prizes in Physics and Chemistry to a joke? What would Alfred Nobel have said? Nothing probably, because he would not have been allowed to speak.

More about the scandal on IVA-skandalen.

How to Silence Critics, Or Not

New York Times reports:

• Green groups are running from a new British advocacy video in which environmentalists deal death to those who refuse to cut their carbon footprints.
  

NYT cites Climate Depot by Marc Morano, former communications director for Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.):

• I think the idea of a comedy is fine, and even the gore and blood is part of our pop culture. What is not fine, and what is actually very revealing, is that their impulse -- the intellectual strain that runs through the alarmist movement -- is to try to silence their critics.
• They blame a handful of skeptics for ruining all their schemes, and this is them expressing their frustrations.
  

Another attempt of silencing critics is given in the upcoming climate seminar arranged by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, where only IPPC loyalists are allowed to speak and critics including myself have to mail in questions in advance and just hope that they will not get sorted out...we'll see...

Maybe the efforts to silence critics cannot change the landslide: BBC reports 

• We are now on the edge of seeing the entire international climate regime system disintegrate and fail more or less irreversibly.
  

Why is the climate regime system disintegrating? Because, the science is falling apart.

Compare with German Parlamentarian under Massive Fire - For Skepticism.

On Curry on Climate Models

IPCC scientist Judith Curry writes in What Can We Learn from Climate Models:

• At the heart of climate model complexity lies the nonlinear dynamics of the atmosphere and oceans, which is described by the Navier-Stokes equations. 
  
• The solution of Navier-Stokes equations is one of the most vexing problems in all of mathematics: 
• the Clay Mathematics Institute has declared this to be one of the top 7 problems in all of mathematics and is offering a $1M prize for its solution (Millenium Prize Problems). 
• we need  a much more thorough exploration of how we should configure climate models and test their fitness for purpose.  
• Computer simulations have transformed the climate sciences...
• ....given the complexity of the climate problem, climate models are an essential tool for climate research, and are becoming an increasingly valuable tool for a range of societal applications.
  
• But I think the climate modeling enterprise is putting the cart before the horse in terms of attempting a broad range of applications that include prediction of regional climate change, largely driven by needs of policy makers. 

What Judith Curry is saying is that computational solution of the Navier-Stokes equations 

opens new possibilities in climate science, but that a "climate enterprise" driven by policy makers (IPCC) has misused the possiblity. Too bad...

But this is good news for experts on solving the Navier-Stokes equations outside the policy driven climate enterprise... for perspective, see

• The Clay Navier-Stokes Millennium Problem
• The Secret of Turbulence
• Basic Thermodynamics of the Atmosphere
• Computational Turbulent Incompressible Flow

and why not Quelques questions...sur le climat by Paul Deheuvels related to the recent debate in l'Academie des Sciences

There are possibilites! And pitfalls, to avoid! 

While Curry answers her own question by: I'm not sure!

Azar Lugnar: Klimathotet Kvarstår

I senaste numret av FORSKNING sänder Prof. Christian Azar, Sveriges miljömäktigaste person, ett lugnande budskap till alla finansiärer av klimatforskning kopplad till FNs klimatpanel IPCC, efter alla skandaler relaterade till IPCC:

• en del faktafel......koldioxid fångar in värmestrålning, hakten ökar, den långsiktiga trenden när det gäller temperaturen pekar uppåt, och så vidare.

Men andra ord: Klimathotet kvarstår och fortsatt finansiering är viktig för mänsklighetens överlevnad:

• det är klart att ett antal aktörer försökt blåsa upp frågan för att misskreditera IPCC och hela klimatvetenskapen, men jag tror den långsiktiga effekten kommer att vara begränsad.

Så talar Tidningen om Svensk Forskning inom Teknik och Naturvetenskap. 

När jag försöker intervjua Azar om den vetenskapliga grunden för hans och IPCCs CO2-alarmism, får jag inga svar, bara frågor...