söndag 7 augusti 2022

Thermodynamics of Capitalism vs Zero Interest Rate

The 2nd Law of thermodynamics expresses that slightly viscous gas/fluid dynamics includes turbulence as cascade of ordered kinetic motion/energy from bigger to smaller scales which is terminated by dissipation into heat energy as smallest scale unordered kinetic motion/energy. The cascade of turbulence into heat energy puts a limit to the increasing strains building from gas/fluid particles with different velocities brought into contact by slightly viscous convection thus allowing the flow to persist over time without blow up or break down. 

The turbulent dissipation is viewed as a loss of large scale ordered kinetic energy or cost, which is necessary to keep slightly viscous flow alive. It is considered to be a loss since the produced low-quality heat energy as unordered kinetic energy cannot fully be recycled into high-quality large scale ordered kinetic energy, because the precision required is not available. You can burn a book into heat energy and ashes, but you cannot reconstruct the book from the ashes. This is developed in detail in Computational Thermodynamics.

One can make a connection to the Schumpeter's Creative Destruction as the incessant product and process innovation mechanism by which new production units replace outdated ones as an essential fact about capitalism. 

The creative destruction is a loss of value of process and product capital and it seems natural to balance with an interest rate as a loss/cost of financial capital. 

A capitalistic system can then be seen as slightly viscous flow in which large strains can develop because free enterprise as ordered large scale kinetic energy is allowed, and then as a system which needs a certain level of creative destruction balanced by interest rate to keep going without break down. 

In particular, setting the interest rate to zero (ZIRP), would give a system without financial limits prone to break down. This is what we are now witnessing unfold after 20 years of zero interest rate.  

The idea behind ZIRP seems to be to refinance state budgets out of control. Compare with this exposition of the dark side of ZIRP now coming up: It appears that a healthy bond yield/risk premium/interest rate could be 3% + inflation, thus 10% if inflation is 7%. Looks good?  

Note that turbulent dissipation is the way nature puts a limit to the increasing strains/velocity gradients building up in a slightly viscous flow so that the flow can continue/show go on. In a ZIRP capitalistic economy huge wealth gradients develop which put society under increasing strain/inequalities...  


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