- short-time pointwise predictable
- long-time pointwise unpredictable
- long-time mean-value predictable
onsdag 18 november 2009
The Weather in Målilla and Global Climate
Kuno Schröder measuring the temperature since 2004 in Målilla.
In Part II Mathematics of Turbulence of my book with Johan Hoffman Computational Turbulent Incompressible Flow from 2007, we show in Chapter 13 Turbulence and Chaos that turbulent fluid dynamics is
We see, as we all know, that the daily temperature can only be predicted a couple of days ahead, to a meaningful tolerance, while the monthly or even better yearly mean-value can be predicted years ahead to a meaningful tolerance.
These are also features of climate dynamics, which is a form of weather dynamics on large space-time scales, but long-time prediction is difficult because of the complexity of the modeling.
We are thus pleased to see that our book, written before we lifted our horizon to climate dynamics, directly connects to the crucial question of accuracy and reliability of climate models. We see these connections in particular in the recent text by HK Climate.
We also note that Nowcast reports from a weathercasters poll that only 19% agree to the statement that global climate models are reliable in their projections for a warming of the planet. If weathercasters don't believe in climate models, and they should know since they have a lot of experience, who could believe? Believers should answer one simple question and maybe take a look at the comparison between model prediction and real outcome.
Even Swedish Radio P1-Morgon Nov 20 reports on alarmism skepticism represented by Richard Lindzen and John Christy claiming that climate models exaggerate climate sensitivity
because they are programmed to do that. Mass illusion and hysteria, according to Lindzen, who is quite out-spoken...