Climate sensitivity measures the change in global temperature under changes of heat forcing,
and can only be assessed using climate models, because controled experiments are impossible.
I have in previous posts questioned if the simple ode-model used by Lindzen-Choi is capable of giving information on feed-back, positive or negative, underlying climate sensitivity, as illustrated by Spencer. However, it may be possible that full 3d pde-models capturing the turbulent transport of heat in atmosphere and ocean, can serve this purpose...
But as of now experts cannot tell if we are now entering a new cooling period in some form of multi-decadal oscillation MDO following the cooling from 1940s - 1970s and warming
1970s - 2000 and neither 2000-2010.
I agree with Pielke that accurate long-term climate prediction without accurate short-time seasonal prediction, cannot be expected. To claim as the UK Met Office does, that this is possible, seems to lack scientific mathematical support.
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