tisdag 12 januari 2010
Climate Sensitivity and Feedback 3
The Reference Frame reports on criticism of the Lindzen-Choi article on climate sensitivity including Spencer and a group of four connected to IPCC headed by Trenberth.
Climate sensitivity measures the change in global temperature under changes of heat forcing,
and can only be assessed using climate models, because controled experiments are impossible.
I have in previous posts questioned if the simple ode-model used by Lindzen-Choi is capable of giving information on feed-back, positive or negative, underlying climate sensitivity, as illustrated by Spencer. However, it may be possible that full 3d pde-models capturing the turbulent transport of heat in atmosphere and ocean, can serve this purpose...
But as of now experts cannot tell if we are now entering a new cooling period in some form of multi-decadal oscillation MDO following the cooling from 1940s - 1970s and warming
1970s - 2000 and neither 2000-2010.
I agree with Pielke that accurate long-term climate prediction without accurate short-time seasonal prediction, cannot be expected. To claim as the UK Met Office does, that this is possible, seems to lack scientific mathematical support.