fredag 25 januari 2013

Scientific Basis of CO2 Alarmism = 0

The above graph shows the spectrum of the outgoing longwave radiation OLR from the Earth with atmosphere into outer space as computed by the software Modtran. The result is a "radiative forcing" delta F = 3.39 W/m2 as the difference of the area under the green curve with the preindustrial level of CO2 of 300 ppm, and the blue curve with projected doubled CO2. The idea is that doubled CO2 makes the ditch in the spectrum around the wave number 667 connected to the absorption/emission spectrum of CO2, somewhat broader (from green to blue curve) with reduced OLR and a warming "radiative forcing" of 3.39 W/m2.

The whole machine of CO2 alarmism propagated by IPCC is based on this single number signaling a warming effect of 3.39 W/m2 from doubled CO2. Take this number away and the warming effect of doubled CO2 is gone and with that CO2 alarmism.

We see that the  3.39 W/m2 is of the order of 1% of a total of about 260 W/m2. We understand that the curves are computed using a model which can only be described as very simple and crude as compared to the complexity of global climate. We understand that there are no measurements accurate enough to support any "radiative forcing" of a few W/m2. In addition, as shown in previous posts, the whole ditch of warming in the spectrum measured by satellite is most likely a misleading artifact.

We understand that from scientific point the "radiative forcing" of 3.39 W/m2 from doubled CO2 has no value, since model predictions without support from reality cannot be viewed as real science, only fiction.

The "radiative forcing" of 3.39 W/m2 was invented by IPCC as the key basic scientific evidence of the warming effect of CO2. But this argument has no scientific value. And without a basis in science the whole machine of CO2 alarmism disintegrates under its own weight. This is what now is happening.

What is strange is that CO2 alarmism critics like Lindzen, Spencer and Monckton have allowed themselves to be misled to believe that the 3.39 W/m2 of "radiative forcing" invented by IPCC, is science.

In this sense IPCC has been successful, but it does not take long time for a rational mind to free itself  and understand that this is not science and thus understand that the scientific basis of the IPCC CO2 alarmism = 0.

2 kommentarer:

  1. Hello Claes,
    By way of introduction, I was participating in a discussion at Tallbloke's and 'cementafriend' suggested I take a look at some of your posts. So here I am. My name is Robin, and I'm an aging electric power engineer with an interest in climate science. I live in New Zealand.

    I enjoyed the above post, and while IPCC's model is only a sort of 'hopeshot' as to how radiative theory pans out, even if they are right, the effect is very small.

    This is the first time I have seen both the 300ppm and 600ppm on the same graph. The difference is indeed small.

    As I understand things, if the 1200ppm line was plotted it would be about the same difference again, ie: another 3.4W/m2 approx. Have I got that right?

    I am pleased to have visited and wish you all the best for the year ahead. I'll come back now and then as time permits.


  2. Thanks Robin: The consensus is that it would be even smaller, maybe half.