torsdag 7 februari 2013
Story of Vanishing Evidence of CO2 Warming
In the late 20 century as the cold war was coming to an end, the fear of nuclear war was replaced by a fear of anthropogenic global warming caused by emissions of CO2 from burning of fossil fuels.
Governments united under UN gave massive support to science for producing evidence of global warming by CO2, evidence which governments could use to motivate a special tax on CO2, which would lead society into a new world without CO2-emissions, with lots of tax money to be spent by politicians.
Scientists started, with great enthusiasm stimulated by generous government grants, searching for evidence of a warming effect of CO2 in the form of a "greenhouse effect" with CO2 named "greenhouse gas" because of its capability of absorbing and emitting infrared radiation at isolated specific frequencies, because of its unsymmetric molecular structure, as observed in an early study by the Swedish Nobel Laureate Svante Arrhenius from 1896.
But finding evidence was difficult because CO2 is an atmospheric trace gas (now 390 ppm) and it is always difficult to find evidence of a big effect from a small cause, because this can only happen in unstable systems and such systems have no permanence allowing study.
An idea which developed was that doubling of CO2 would cause a "radiative forcing" of extra 2 - 4 W/m2 to be added to the 240 W/m2 received from the Sun, which was connected to a global warming of 1 C. Of course 1 C would be barely noticeable, but that was the best that could be squeezed out of CO2 alone, but with feedback from the system under "radiative forcing" from doubled CO2, the warming could be inflated to 3 C, which would enough to motivate a tax on CO2 to save the world.
The whole story of global warming by CO2 then rested on finding evidence of "radiative forcing" of 2 - 4 W/m2 from doubled CO2 and scientists were ordered to construct instruments for recording radiation spectra, which could show this effect.
But this turned out to be virtually impossible, because 2 - 4 W/m2 was too small to be measured: It required an accuracy below 1% which was impossible to achieve in practice. The difficulty of a big effect from a small cause showed its real face.
To counter this "small cause - big effect" syndrome, new physics of "back radiation" was invented showing a warming of 300 W/m2 of the Earth surface from the colder atmosphere as a big cause, but the new physics violated the 2nd law of thermodynamics and thus belonged to fiction.
What then remained of scientific support of CO2 alarmism based on observation, was a recorded global warming 1970 - 1998 of 0.5 C, which was connected to an increase of atmospheric CO2 from 330 to 370 ppm during the same time.
But this connection disappeared during 1998 - 2013, which went by without global warming, while CO2 continued to increase to 390 ppm.
The evidence of global warming by CO2 has thus today crumbled to nil, which presents a difficult case for the new report by IPPC under UN in charge of CO2 alarmism, to be presented in September. Without scientific support, a CO2 tax cannot be motivated and the whole BIG BLUFF project of unprecedented dimensions, collapses.
... and All the King's Horses and all the King's Men Couldn't put Humpty together again...
This is a summary of a study I was led into starting in 2009 and I have reported on this blog.