onsdag 6 februari 2013

CERES and Radiative Forcing

      The Earth's energy budget according to CERES showing unphysical "back radiation" of 340 W/m2
An overview of the CERES project is given in CERES, a review: Past, present and Future (2011):
  • The Clouds and Earth Radiant Energy System (CERES) project’s objectives are to measure the reflected solar radiance (shortwave) and Earth-emitted (longwave) radiances and from these measurements to compute the shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and the surface and radiation divergence within the atmosphere. The fluxes at TOA are to be retrieved to an accuracy of 2%. 
  • The first objective of CERES is to measure OLR radiances to an accuracy of 1% and reflected solar radiances to 2%. The global mean OLR flux is approximately 240 W/m2, so the requirement is 2.4 W/m2 accuracy. Likewise the global mean reflected flux is 100 W/m2, thus the requirement for shortwave flux is 2 W/m2.

We conclude that the accuracy of CERES even at the lower level of 1% for OLR, would not be good enough to detect effects of "radiative forcing" by CO2. 

That the "radiative forcing" of doubled CO2 would be 3.7 W/m2 is a wild guess by IPCC without experimental support, which serves as the following cornerstone of CO2 alarmism:
  • Without any feedbacks, a doubling of CO2 (which amounts to a forcing of 3.7 W/m2) would result in 1 °C global warming, which is easy to calculate and is undisputed. 
Here the "easy undisputed calculation" is dQ = 4 dT, where dQ is "radiative forcing" and dT corresponding global warming as a differentiated form of Stefan-Boltzmann's Law Q = sigma T^4. 

The number 3.7 or 4 W/m2 is so chosen by IPCC that the global warming would be 1 C, according to the "easy undisputed calculation", which is not too big to not be possible and not too small to be negligible. The basic argument of CO2 alarmism is that with feedback 1 C can become 3 C which is alarming. 

The whole idea of "radiative forcing" lacks sound physics basis since the forcing comes from the Sun and only from the Sun, and this is reflected by the fact that it cannot be discovered by instruments measuring physical phenomena, that is, it is fiction of a BIG BLUFF.

PS CERES is selling itself e.g. on a video telling us
  • When you add greenhouse gasses such as CO2 and methane you change that radiation balance on the top of the atmosphere and you change the amount of outgoing radiation so that imbalance means more energy in the system...part of it goes into the ocean...and part of goes into actually warming the Earth...all of those things should give you a coherent picture of how things are changing as we warm the climate...
The purpose is obvious: Use CERES to show global warming by radiative forcing from CO2. The only trouble is that CERES shows nothing of this sort...all attempts to measure radiative forcing by CO2 seem to fail miserably...the scale of the BIG BLUFF with its organized governmental science support, is really impressive...  

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