lördag 17 april 2010
The Incorrect Postulate of Climate Alarmism
The basic postulate of IPCC climate alarmism is the relation dQ = 4 dT connecting radiative forcing dQ to global warming dT, with dQ = 4 Watts/m^2 from doubling of CO2 giving a climate sensitivity or global warming of dT = 1 C, which is inflated to 1.5 - 4.5 C by feed back.
See Climate System Modeling by Kevin Trenberth.
The relation dQ = 4 dT comes from Stefan-Boltzmann's Radiation Law, which cannot be disputed as such.
However, the application of the Radiation Law by IPCC to motivate that dQ = 4 dT with dT the warming of the surface of the Earth, can be disputed. This is what I do in the previous posts on Climate Sensitivity and in the related article A New Approach to Climate Sensitivity with a model study indicating instead a basic climate sensitivity of 0.15 C without feed backs.
The resaon the Radiation Law does not determine the temperature of the surface of the Earth to its value of 15 C, is that the Earth is one part of the coupled Earth-atmosphere system with radiation exchange between the parts. The Radiation Law determines the temperature of the surface of the system, the stratopause, to 0 C, but not the Earth surface temperature.
Comments are wellcome.