lördag 8 januari 2011
Climate Alarmism and Real Estate Bubbles
CO2 climate alarmism is based on the global energy budget by Kiehl and Trenbert shown above with a notable "backradiation" of 324 W/m2 adding to the 168 W/m2 absorbed by the Earth surface of the incoming radiation from the Sun, adding up to a radiation of 390 W/m2 and thermodynamics of 102 W/m2 from the Earth surface.
The picture thus displays a two-way circulation of energy between the Earth and the atmosphere of about 400 W/m2. Climate alarmism is based on the assumption that doubled CO2 will give a 1% change of this circulation causing "radiative forcing" of 4 W/m2, which by
Stefan-Boltzmann's radiation law is translated to a warming of 1 C, by feedback augmented to
and alarming 3 C.
In the new book Slaying the Sky Dragon: Death of the Greenhouse Gas Theory it is shown that
the circulating flow of energy between Earth and atmosphere, is fiction without physical reality.
Let me here illustrate the nature of the fiction in a familiar example from real estate. Suppose you want to buy an old house that costs 390 (thousand dollars say) and requires 102 to put in shape, but that you have only 168 in your bank account at your disposal. Can you do it?
No problem, you say: I will just go to the bank and borrow 324 and I will be all set: I can buy the house and fix it and I will have a prestigious house to show to the world.
All this is fine, but there is something you should not forget: You don't own the house; more than half is owned by the bank, and thus you run a risk and the risk increases with the fraction owned by the bank. A small percentage change of the value of the house may erase your net savings. To send this message can be viewed as a a form of real estate alarmism, which may be motivated by the realities of the real estate business.
Do you see the analogy with the above energy budget? Yes, there is a close analogy, but there is an important difference: There is no bank in Nature where the Earth can borrow energy. The two-way circulating flow of energy between Earth and atmosphere is pure fiction. Nature cannot build speculation bubbles of energy based on "backradiation". Why? Because speculation bubbles are unstable and in Nature unstable processes cannot exist over time (except possibly by Divine Intervention).