## lördag 8 maj 2010

### FEniCS as Global Climate Simulator?!

Radiation Budget according to NASA IPCC

This is an outline of my talk at FEniCS 10 May 10-12 at KTH based on
Global Circulation Models = GCM = NAVIER-STOKES eqns for Ocean-Atmosphere:
• convection
• evaporation-condensation: phase change
• turbulence: diffusion, dissipation
• radiation (black-body: absorb SW emit LW)
• conduction
• atmosphere: compressible
• ocean: incompressible variable density salinity
• full 3d (vertical convection)
• insolation
• rotation.
IDEAL for FEniCS!! IDEAL for UNICORN!!

Variable Density Turbulent Circulation: Movie 1   Movie 2
(Johan Jansson/Hoffman)

CASE STUDY of SCIENCE in OUR TIME

Postulate of Climate Alarmism: (rock solid undeniable basic physics)

• dQ = 4 dT

•    Q= c T^4                Q = 288 Watts/m2      T= 288 K

Differentiation:
• dQ = 4c T^3 dT = Q/T 4dT = 288/288 4 dT = 4 dT

Basic Climate  Sensitivity:
• Doubled CO2: dQ = 4 Watts/m2: dT = 1 C Basic
• "Radiative Forcing" 2 - 4 W (estimated)
• CO2 280 - 380 (1900 -2000): 0.7 C : 2.8 W

IPCC Prediction Global Warming:
• 1 C gives 3 C by positive feed back: Alarm!
Alarm
• 1% of Q (4 W)  gives 1% of T (3 C) from SB + feedback
Reality Check:
• without atmosphere T = 273 or T = 255 K
• with atmosphere T = 288 K
• effect of full atmosphere  + 15/45 C
• effect of 1% atmosphere = 0.15/0.45 C
IPCC 3 C = 10-20 times too big!   3 C instead of 0.15 C!

Observation ERBE: dQ = 8 dT      dT = 0.5 C  instead of 3 C!

Is SB incorrect?
• No, but too simplistic as climate model: Convection...missing.
Conclusion:
• No CO2 Alarm ?!
• FEniCS?!
• Real Climate Sensitivity?!
• FEniCS Mission!
• Obama Cap and Trade EPA Global Emision Control?

Conventional Greenhouse:
• Block Convection
"Greenhouse" Gases: (rock solid undeniable basic physics)
• Absorb-Emit LW Radiation = "Blanket"
Atmospheric Blanket Layer Effect:
• Absorb  f x Earth Re-emit  f/2 x Earth Down   +  f/2 x Earth Up-Out
• Total Out (1- f + f/2) x Earth = (1 - f/2) x Earth
• T_Earth = 2^(1/4) T_Atmos = 1.2 x T_Atmos
• T_Atmos 255 K     T_Earth = 30 C Wrong!
• Radiation Blanket Model Too Simplistic

E(z+h) - 2 E(z) + E(z-h)

Radiation ~ Conduction: From Hot to Cold

Constant lapse rate:
• Temperature  ~ (1 - z)    observed
• Pressure ~ (1 - z)^3         observed
• Density ~ (1 - z)^2           observed

PS2 My question to the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences concerning its statement that
• "the effect of greenhouse gases is well established"

Once it was "well established" that the Earth is flat, but the scientific evidence was lacking...

To say that something is "well established" is not a scientific argument, even if a Scientific Academy so believes...

What does FEniCS say? Are we allowed to continue to breath?

#### 3 kommentarer:

1. You may be interested in a new paper refuting G&T paper:

http://www.worldscinet.com/ijmpb/24/2410/S021797921005555X.html

(don't know of a free link to the paper)

2. Just noticed that G&T wrote a rebuttal to this in the same issue:

http://www.worldscinet.com/ijmpb/24/2410/S0217979210055573.html

3. 天下沒有意把鑰匙，可以打開所有的門...............................................................