I have repeatedly asked the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences to revise its Statement THE SCIENTIFIC BASIS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE from 2009 based on IPCC AR4 from 2007, in particular in the light of the new IPCC AR5. The reaction I get from the main author of the Statement, professor Lennart Bengtsson, is that the Statement is so wisely formulated that it fits any thinkable new development and thus does not need to be revised.
To see if this is true, let us analyze the main messages of the Statement by the Academy:
The Academy first makes it clear that the Academy considers IPCC Working Group I to represent the scientific basis of climate science/change:
- The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group 1 (The Physical Science Basis) has given a broad, systematic summary of the scientific literature on climate change and has concluded that the anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases has led to an increase in the surface temperature of the Earth.
- IPCC has undertaken modelling studies to estimate the effect of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols on climate during the next 100 years based on different emission scenarios. These studies indicate a global surface warming at the end of the 21st century of 1.5-3.5 °C compared to present-day conditions.
- With the warming projections examined by IPCC other changes may follow, for example in the hydrological cycle, that might cause more problems than the temperature changes themselves. Whilst the lower range of warming may be acceptable, at least in some regions, the upper range is likely to cause very severe problems worldwide.
- In view of the potential long-term negative effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases on climate and ocean chemistry (for example, acidification), development of mitigation technologies should be given priority. These should seek ways of reducing CO2 emission and the other components of anthropogenic forcing (including CH4, N2O, tropospheric ozone and black carbon aerosols) as well as focusing on CO2 sequestration, involving both the biosphere and the geosphere.
- It is extremely likely (95%) that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed zero warming during the last 17 years.
If the Academy simply echoes IPCC passively, then its Statement should be revised to reflect AR5 instead of AR4. If after all, the Academy is a real scientific academy of real independently thinking scientists and is not simply a passive echo of IPCC, then the Statement should be completely rewritten.
PS Here is a copy of a another letter sent today asking the Academy to revise its Statement (in Swedish):
Staffan Normark KVA
Jag upprepar min begäran att KVA måtte revidera sitt Statement The Scientific Basis for Climate Change i ljuset av IPCC AR5: http://claesjohnson.blogspot.se/2013/11/royal-swedish-academy-of-sciences.html
Jag har framställt denna begäran flera gånger men inte fått någon som helst respons från KVA. Jag skulle uppskatta någon form av svar på min framställan och inte bara tystnad som om den inte nått KVA.
KVAs Statement utgör grunden för svensk klimatpolitk med fokus på minskade koldioxidutsläpp. Om KVA skulle ändra sitt Statement bort från koldioxidalarmism, så skulle också svensk klimatpolitik ändras. KVA bär således ett huvudansvar för svensk klimatpolitik och måste agera därefter.
Vänliga hälsningar, Claes
Claes Johnson, prof i tillämpad matematik KTH