tisdag 11 augusti 2009

Interview with Erland Källen: Meteorologist

Interview with Erland Källen, Professor of Dynamic Meteorology at Stockholm University.

CJ: What is the accuracy of the climate models used in the IPCC predictions of the effects of greenhouse gases on the global climate?

EK: The error margins are pretty big. The scenario showing 2 degrees warming has an error margin between 1 and nearly 4 degrees, with the upper margin bigger than the lower. All scenarios thus give a warming with the worst scenario over 6 degrees... 

CJ: Do you really mean that if the upper error margin was 10 degrees, then the worst scenario would be more than 12 degrees, so that a bigger error margin would indicate more warming?
Or do we use the term error margin differently?

EK: ??

EK:  Over a longer time period there is a connection between increase of CO2 and global temperature....It is impossible that natural variations only, could explain the warming the last 50 years....From a moral point of view it is very difficult to understand, why we in the rich part of the World have a right to demand birth control in developing countries, if we don't at the same time open to an increased standard of living...To explain the warming the last 50 years it is difficult to see another main reason than increase of CO2...From computer simulations we draw the conclusion that increased CO2 is the most plausible explanation of observed temperature change..

CJ: Are you gradually changing from impossible...to difficult to see...to most plausible...to...?

EK: ??

Erland Källen does not seem to be willing to be interviewed by me. But the questions remain.

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