tisdag 11 augusti 2009

Chill-Out: Climate Change??

Chill-Out -- The Truth about the Climate Bubble (in Swedish) by Lars Bern and Maggie Thauersköld,  is an important contribution to the Swedish debate on Anthropogenic Global Warming AGW. Read and think!

The key question is if the global warming of 0.7 degrees Celsius during the 20th century, is due to an increase of CO2 in the atmosphere from 0.028% to 0.038% due to anthropogenic burning of fossil fuels, and if therefore strict limitations on CO2 emissions must be imposed to save the World? 

Al Gore says YES! based on the following key statements in the 2007 Synthesis Report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change IPCC:
  • Continued green-house-gas/CO2 emissions at or above current rates  would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that  would very likely be larger than those observed during  the 20th century. 
  • Anthropogenic warming could lead to some impacts  that are abrupt or irreversible, depending upon the rate  and magnitude of the climate change. 

Chill-Out puts these statements into perspective and in particular points to the fact that the predictions of IPCC are based on computer simulations showing a better fit to measured temperature with anthropogenic warming included than without. 

Note that the IPCC statements are very cautious, which reflects a generally accepted view that the accuracy/reliability of current climate models is questionable, which I have discussed in previous blogs on climate simulation.

The next UN Climate Conference will take place in Copenhagen in December under Swedish chairmanship of EU. UN Climate chief Yvo de Boer hopes the conference will in particular reach agreements to limit the growth of emissions in developing countries, required to be necessary by predictions of catastrophical global warming.

The key question is if poor people will have to remain poor because of the scientifically vague predictions of IPCC based on certain computer simulations generally viewed to be unreliable?Fredrik Reinfeldt, Swedish prime minister and current EU president, says YES! calling for immediate global action on climate change at the opening of Nordic Climate Solutions, in Copenhagen November 27 2008:
  • We must act today, in order to save tomorrow.
Chill-Out helps you to understand the background and meaning of this statement.
Also compare A man-made mortality tale: How the IPCC’s fairly sober summary of climate science has been spun to tell a story of Fate, Doom and human folly. Read and think!

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