lördag 30 mars 2024

Spooky Action at Distance in Global Warming

This is a follow up of a discussion with prof Will Happer on Outgoing Longwave Radiation OLR from the Earth into outer space, which determines global warming or cooling, as concerns measurement of temperature and radiation by AIRS spectrometers in satellites looking down on the atmosphere with output (clear sky): 


We see a graph of radiative flux as function of frequency on a background of corresponding blackbody spectra at varying temperatures from 225 K at the top of the troposphere, over 255 K in the middle and 288 at the Earth surface. We see major radiation from H20 for lower frequencies at temperatures around 255 K,  from CO2 at 225 K and from the Earth surface at 288 K through the atmospheric window.

This graph is presented as the essential scientific basis of climate alarmism with the ditch in the spectrum giving CO2 a substantial role even if H20 and the window has major role. But the change in the ditch by doubling CO2 from preindustrial level is much smaller of size 1% of total incoming radiation from the Sun. 

In any case the measured spectrum of OLR by AIRS serves as key evidence of global warming by human CO2 emissions, but it requires an accuracy of less than 1%. 

Is this the case? We recall the spectrometer of AIRS is based on the bolometer which is an instrument measuring temperature in some frequency band at distance, from which radiation is computed using Modtran as software to solve Schwarzschild's equations of radiative transfer line by line. This is a complex computation involving coefficients of emissivity and absorptivity which are not precisely known. There are many posts on this topic under Schwarzschild and OLR and bolometer. Results are reported as radiative forcing from increasing CO2, typical of size 1% of total incoming. 

Thus temperature is directly measured while radiation is the result of a complex computation for which an accuracy of less than 1% is required. You have to be a believer in global warming to believe that this accuracy is met. In other words, the evidence of global warming supposedly being presented by the OLR spectrum is not convincing if you have the slightest inclination towards skepticism.

Back to Happer, who claims that it does not not matter what is directly measured, since there is a connection between temperature and radiation, and so one may as well view that AIRS measures radiation. Our discussion came to halt at this point. 

But to me it is clear that a bolometer (or pyrgeometer) is an instrument which directly measures temperature and if the instrument reports radiation, it is the result of a computation of unknown accuracy, which more precisely can be grossly misleading. In other words, reported temperature is reliable while reported radiation is not. 

The key observation is that CO2 radiation is measured to have temperature 225 K which means that it comes from the top of the atmosphere as the highest level where presence of CO2 is detected by the AIRS bolometer, with higher levels being transparent. 

The radiative forcing of 1% is thus based on a computation for which the accuracy is not known to be less than 1%. Your conclusion? 

The key question is then what can measured at distance, temperature or radiation? There are several instruments that can directly measure temperature at distance, such as infrared cameras, bolometers and pyrogeometers, all based on radiative equilibrium at distance rationalised as Computational Blackbody Radiation. This is an analog to measuring temperature by a thermometer in contact.  

But there are no instruments directly measuring radiation by some kind of photon capturing technique. Believing that this is possible represents belief in a some form of spooky action at distance. And you? And Happer?

PS In a letter to Max Born in 1947 Einstein said of the statistical approach to quantum mechanics, which he attributed to Born: I cannot seriously believe in it because the theory cannot be reconciled with the idea that physics should represent a reality in time and space, free from spooky action at a distance. This is  a different setting than that considered here: Reading temperature at distance is not spooky. Reading radiation is spooky action at distance.


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