- There is very high confidence that models reproduce the more rapid warming in the second half of the 20th century.
- Models do not generally reproduce the observed reduction in surface warming trend over the last 10–15 years.
- There is medium confidence that this difference between models and observations is to a substantial degree caused by unpredictable climate variability, with possible contributions from inadequacies in the solar, volcanic, and aerosol forcings used by the models and, in some models, from too strong a response to increasing greenhouse-gas forcing.
- too strong a response to increasing greenhouse-gas forcing,
- unpredictable climate variability.
PS Concerning climate predictions recall the prediction I made in 2009.