|Ross McKitrick comments on the reality facing the 5th Assessment Report of IPCC to be presented September 23 - 26 in Stockholm in IPCC Models Getting Mushy (Financial Post):|
The above graphic is Figure 1.4 from Chapter 1 of a draft of the Fifth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The initials at the top represent the First Assessment Report (FAR) in 1990, the Second (SAR) in 1995. Shaded banks show range of predictions from each of the four climate models used for all four reports since 1990. That last report, AR4, was issued in 2007. Model runs after 1992 were tuned to track temporary cooling due to the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in The Philippines. The black squares, show with uncertainty bars, measure the observed average surface temperatures over the same interval. The range of model runs is syndicated by the vertical bars. The light grey area above and below is not part of the model prediction range. The final version of the new IPCC report, AR5, will be issued later this month.
The message is the same as that Richard Feynman sent to his physics colleagues:
- It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong.
PS Roy Spencer draws the same conclusion in Turning Point for IPCC and Humanity:
- We are now at the point in the age of global warming hysteria where the IPCC global warming theory has crashed into the hard reality of observations.
- A few of us are not that surprised, as we always distrusted the level of faith that climate modelers had in their understanding of the causes of climate change.