The evidence of global warming from increasing concentration of atmospheric CO2 as a "greenhouse gas" in support of CO2 alarmism propagated to the world and its political leaders by IPCC and governmental institutions, consists of
- Direct observation of global temperature and CO2 concentration.
- But the last 15 years with no global warming under rising CO2 gives no reason for CO2 alarmism.
- Modtran/Hitran as a combination of model theory and laboratory measurement serves as the main evidence of "radiative forcing" of 3.7 W/m2 from doubled CO2 to 600 ppm commonly translated to a global warming of 1 C.
- But Modtran gives a "radiative forcing" from the present 390 ppm to 600 ppm of only 2 W/m2 translated to a warming of 0.5 C, which is so small that it cannot be observed.
- The Modtran model results are either unreliable with no predictive value (most likely), or reliable with no reason for alarm.