fredag 5 mars 2010

Met Office Scraps Seasonal Forecasts

Bishop Hill reports that the Met Office reports that seasonal forecasts have been scrapped:
  • The Met Office is to abandon its long-term and seasonal forecasting after criticism for failing to predict extreme weather.
Bishop Hill then asks the natural question how it is possible for the Met Office to make long-time
predictions of the climate, if seasonal predictions are impossible. I have discussed this question in previous posts on Short-Time vs Long-Time Accuracy, with the conclusion that only in very special cases is it possible that long-time accuracy is possible without short-time accurcay.

The Met Office maybe should scrap also its long-time climate forecasts, and stick to its main mission of daily forcasts.

But the Met Office counters the scrapped seasonal forecasts by sending out renewed long-time AGW alarm: Climate Change Human Link Even "Stronger".

What does the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences say? No collapse of any AGW science in sight?

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