fredag 31 januari 2020

Atmosphere Effect of 33 C vs Radiation Effect of 9 C

Greta's Vision: Transforming the Earth into a green planet.
A recent post gives evidence that the so called greenhouse effect as the total effect of the presence of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere of the Earth is +9 C, rather than the claimed +33 C as the corner stone of CO2 alarmism asking for a new fossil/carbon free society and a complete restructuring of human civilisation.

The +33 C comes from an idea that the infrared radiation from the Earth with its atmosphere into outer space at 0 Kelvin, takes places from an effective emission level of 5 km above sea level at a temperature of -15 C. This fits with a lapse rate of 6.5 C/km as en effect of both thermodynamics including gravitation and radiation.

Out of the 340 W/m2 received from the Sun, 240 W/m2 is absorbed by the Earth + atmosphere and so has to be radiated to outer space at 0 K, which according to Stephan-Boltzmann's law for a black body corresponds to a temperature of 255 K, thus defining the effective emission level to be 5 km.

The +33 C then comes from comparing the temperature of 255 K at the effective emission level with the temperature on the surface of the Earth of 288 K, and the difference is then proclaimed to be the greenhouse effect as 33 = 288 - 255 C.

But this is not correct, because it attributes the total effect of the atmosphere, being an effect of both thermodynamics and radiation, to radiation alone. But there are strong arguments that the total effect is 2/3 thermodynamics and 1/3 radiation (in any case without domination of radiation), which fits with the idea of +9 C as the effect from radiation alone, which is what should be called the greenhouse effect, if rules of logic are followed.

By identifying a total atmosphere effect with a radiation effect, a large greenhouse effect of +33 C comes out. Correcting this fundamental mistake reduces the greenhouse effect by a factor 3 and thus changes alarm into no-alarm.

The dooms-day vision of CO2 alarmism can thus be replaced by hope of a better future for in particular all poor people of the world, who would have no place after the complete restructuring. Recall Greta's answer to the question of what has to be changed according to climate alarmism: Everything!

With a greenhouse effect of +9 C the surface temperature of an Earth without greenhouse gasses would thus be + 6 C, which incidently(?) is the mean annual temperature of Sweden! This supports a widespread idea that Sweden is country of mean values and as such the right norm.

Annual mean temperature in Stockholm recovering from Little Ice Age from 6  to 7 C.
As high temperature in 1930s as today. Variation from year to year 4 C.

2 kommentarer:

  1. 40 years of data shows that the lapse rate is more like 5.6 C/km and not 6.5 C/km.

  2. Rather, it is more likely that Alan Siddons is correct and the 33 degrees is practically entirely due to atmospheric pressure.
    Don't forget what Mark Lynas totally missed in his book, Six degrees : our future on a hotter planet, that for every degree change at the equator, there is about five at the poles due to heat transport.