- At the heart of climate model complexity lies the nonlinear dynamics of the atmosphere and oceans, which is described by the Navier-Stokes equations.
- The solution of Navier-Stokes equations is one of the most vexing problems in all of mathematics:
- the Clay Mathematics Institute has declared this to be one of the top 7 problems in all of mathematics and is offering a $1M prize for its solution (Millenium Prize Problems).
- we need a much more thorough exploration of how we should configure climate models and test their fitness for purpose.
- Computer simulations have transformed the climate sciences...
- ....given the complexity of the climate problem, climate models are an essential tool for climate research, and are becoming an increasingly valuable tool for a range of societal applications.
- But I think the climate modeling enterprise is putting the cart before the horse in terms of attempting a broad range of applications that include prediction of regional climate change, largely driven by needs of policy makers.
What Judith Curry is saying is that computational solution of the Navier-Stokes equations
opens new possibilities in climate science, but that a "climate enterprise" driven by policy makers (IPCC) has misused the possiblity. Too bad...
But this is good news for experts on solving the Navier-Stokes equations outside the policy driven climate enterprise... for perspective, see
- The Clay Navier-Stokes Millennium Problem
- The Secret of Turbulence
- Basic Thermodynamics of the Atmosphere
- Computational Turbulent Incompressible Flow
and why not Quelques questions...sur le climat by Paul Deheuvels related to the recent debate in l'Academie des Sciences
There are possibilites! And pitfalls, to avoid!
While Curry answers her own question by: I'm not sure!
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